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The image of the ECB tarnished by the debt crisis

Wednesday Sep 29, 2010

Even if the image of the European Central Bank (ECB) has been tarnished by his handling of the crisis of European sovereign debt, its chairman, Jean-Claude Trichet, is entering its final year in office crowned with a flattering image eyes of analysts showed on Wednesday a Reuters survey.

The 63 market professionals interviewed in effect give him the median score of 8 out of 10 for its performance since it replaced seven years ago Wim Duisenberg as head of the ECB.

The range of scores by Jean-Claude Trichet ranges from 5 to 9.No analyst has therefore accorded the highest grade in French, as was the case in 2007 when the ECB had impressed investors by multiplying rapid injections of liquidity into the markets since the first signs of tension.

"The ECB has shown flexibility by exceeding its mandate to eradicate various crises without undermining its credibility in terms of controlling inflation over the long term," said Elwin de Groot, an economist at Rabobank.

Another Reuters poll on the performance of Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, did not award the median score of 7 out of 10.

The attitude of the ECB during the crisis of sovereign debt in the spring but hurt the image of the European institution.

Nearly 40% of economists, 18 out of 47 exactly, believe that the reputation of the ECB was initiated during this crisis, marked by the reversal of the monetary institution, particularly when it chose to relax the rules effect on collateral rules for banks to help Greek banks.

The ECB has taken an additional course in May by launching into the purchase of debt markets, an initiative seen by some observers as "nuclear weapon" of monetary policy.

Repurchases, however, were moderate compared to those that may have been put in place other central banks.

These measures have provoked widespread criticism because some observers believe they might encourage a resurgence of inflation.

Although skeptics are a minority among analysts surveyed mixed score obtained by the bank on its recent performance contrasts with the near-unanimity aroused by his political crisis began.

"In my opinion, his handling of the crisis of sovereign debt was not ambitious enough.A buyback program would be more meaningful helped stabilize the market earlier, "said Elwin de Groot.

With the exception of two of them, all the economists surveyed felt that the decisions taken between August 2007 and January 2010 have established his reputation.

From the beginning of the crisis, the ECB lent banks unlimited funds at fixed interest rates while reducing its key rate to 1%, a level unprecedented since its creation.

Analysts polled believe that the average rate should remain at current levels until the fourth quarter of 2011.

The survey, conducted between 27 and 29 September, also shows that the Bundesbank President Axel Weber is the favorite to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet in November 2011. Forty of the 45 respondents think that the university will occupy the former chair of President of the ECB.

For now, only Axel Weber and the Italian Mario Draghi are presented as potential candidates for the presidency of the ECB.

In publicly criticizing the debt repurchases, the German has certainly tarnished his reputation within the ECB, some observers believe.But for economists, the chances are increased by the "ticket" which he intends to train with Portuguese Vitor Constancio, who becomes vice-president of the ECB should he win.

"It's finally the turn of Germany and the countries want to balance the country's north and south," said Natascha Gewaltig of Action Economics.

The final decision will be made by political leaders of the EU.


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The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended down 1.12%

Tuesday Sep 28, 2010

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended down 1.12% Tuesday, as a result of higher than two weeks hit by the yen, investors residing in anticipation of possible further intervention by the authorities to stem this increase.

The Nikkei, which gained nearly 8% since the beginning of September, its best monthly performance since March, has lost 107.38 points to 9,495.76 and the Topix broader yielded 6.65 points (-0.78%) to 842.65.

The decline was however limited, with the Nikkei newspaper reported the Bank of Japan considering further easing of monetary policy at its meeting on 4 and 5 October.

Japanese indices also reacted to a negative calendar effect, Monday's meeting is the last in which the stock allowed to claim the interim dividend for the period April to September, analysts explained.

The securities group consumer credit fell sharply after reports of a bankruptcy group Takefuji, a debt of 3.8 billion euros.

The exporters have also suffered particularly, Kyocera and Sony titles yielding 2.2% and 1.11% at closing.


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Toyota will build a new hybrid model in France

Saturday Sep 25, 2010

The Japanese automaker Toyota announced Friday the construction of a small hybrid vehicle at its plant in Onnaing, in the North, from 2012.

Toyota also announced an investment of 53 million euros but said, after a special committee held firm on the site, the new production will not be accompanied by job creation in the factory northerner, which already manufactures the Yaris diesel and gasoline since 2001.

"This decision is part of Toyota's strategy to expand 100% hybrid technology to a growing number of models," said Makoto Sano, president of Toyota France.

Valenciennes site employs approximately 3,000 people and the night shift was eliminated this summer because of lower sales.Toyota currently produces about 700 cars in Onnaing per day and hopes with this new model to find his previous levels of production.

Toyota is already building two hybrid models, the Prius in Japan since 2010 and the Auris in Britain.

The Japanese automaker's ambition to offer a hybrid model in every vehicle category in the coming years and sell a million hybrid cars a year within five years.

Prius sedan is 4.50 m long, 4.20 m Auris measure against 3.80 m for the Yaris.


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Singapore's Olam in negotiations with Louis Dreyfus

Friday Sep 24, 2010

Singapore's Olam group specializing in commodities, announced Friday the opening of preliminary negotiations for a partnership with the Louis Dreyfus, which could take the form of a merger.

Les Echos wrote Thursday that the French giant's commodities trading was considering a merger with Olam.

The Asian group has closed up 9.15% to 3.22 Singapore dollars.

"If these two groups merged, they could easily compete with their larger competitors such as Cargill, Bunge or Daniels Midland," said Ben Santoso, an analyst at DBS Vickers.

He stressed that such a transaction would allow both groups to enjoy "economies of scale and geographical locations.Olam has a strong presence in Africa, and Dreyfus United States. "

French media reported this week about a possible IPO of its subsidiary Louis Dreyfus via food or LD Commodities only for the Brazilian operations of this subsidiary, for an introduction to the stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

LD Commodities is a leading global trading of food and produces about 35 billion dollars (26.2 billion euros) in annual sales.

Olam is one of the largest groups of Asian commodities trading, with a total turnover of 10.5 billion Singapore dollars (5.9 billion) in fiscal year 2010, and this as a competitor to Louis Dreyfus.

Major competitors of Louis Dreyfus Asia and listed in Singapore – Wilmar, Olam and Noble – and Louis Dreyfus could seek to settle the stock market.

But the hypothesis of a dual listing with an introduction to Paris is not excluded, wrote Le Figaro.

Founded in 1851, Louis Dreyfus is present in the trading of grains, oilseeds, cotton, sugar, rice and citrus.It also has activities in energy distribution and property development.

The majority of the former group managing director, Robert Louis-Dreyfus, who died in July 2009, was sent to a foundation, while the remaining capital is in the hands of other family members.

An IPO could meet the capital requirements faced by actors in a commodity sector rapidly growing and rapidly consolidating. Such a project could also provide an opportunity for family members who would be willing to sell their shares.


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Fiat on the lookout for opportunities, speculation Daimler

Wednesday Sep 22, 2010

Fiat said Wednesday it was looking for partnership opportunities, responding to the publication of an Italian newspaper article reporting the interest of Daimler for its manufacturing division.

The German group has in turn denied the comments reported by La Repubblica, wrote that he had made this summer nine billion euros on the table to take this division, the Turin group is preparing to separate from its automotive operations.

While denying this article, Daimler left the door open to renewed rumors of alliances or acquisitions.

"It's no secret that everybody talks to everybody in the industry," said a spokesman for Daimler."But there are no discussions with Fiat on the subject."

Fiat did not formally deny the article of La Repubblica, but said it was normal to look for opportunities to grow its business.

"The group examines every opportunity to improve synergies and access to new markets through various cooperations potential and varied with other industry groups for each of its divisions are," he said.

Analysts questioned the credibility of the information so that only Repubblica Iveco truck subsidiary of Fiat, Daimler would fit.

"They should sell the rest of Fiat Iveco Industrial just to keep, which would represent a considerable effort, while the truck business is not a particularly attractive asset and that the chances of an agreement of competition authorities for this transaction is not high, "said Juergen Pieper, an analyst at Metzler.

Fiat also includes Industrial Case New Holland, which produces agricultural machinery such as tractors or combines, and Fiat Powertrain Technologies, which produces engines and equipment for industrial vehicles.

At 1500 GMT, Fiat gained 1.01% on the Milan Stock Exchange, while Daimler gave up 1.46% in Frankfurt. Meanwhile, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index of the automobile yielded 1.5%.


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Tokyo ended down, investors are prudent

Tuesday Sep 21, 2010

Tokyo stocks ended down Tuesday after playing in the green for most of the session, investors hesitated to extend the rebound in stock prices caused by government intervention in currency markets last week.

The Nikkei lost 0.25% to 9602.11 points. The broader TOPIX, yielded 0.25% to 849.94 points.

Tokyo was closed Monday, has been sustained much of the day with the progression of Wall Street yesterday, and the decline of the yen against the dollar, pushing the Nikkei index to a high of seven weeks in session.But investor caution has prevailed in the end, especially as they feared that the yen will start to appreciate against the greenback.

Kyorin Pharmaceutical Group has soared by 13.34% to 1368 yen. The Nikkei financial daily reported on Saturday that Sawai Pharmaceutical had purchased almost 5% of its capital and had sent a proposal for redemption. Sawai Pharmaceutical ended down 2.73% to 7480 yen.

Canon also gained 1.43% to 3905 yen. The Nikkei reported that the group planned to spend about 15 billion yen (134 million euros) to build a new plant printers in Thailand to meet demand in China and the rest of Asia.


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Wall Street ends up with the technology stocks

Saturday Sep 18, 2010

Wall Street finished higher Friday, with technology stocks supported the trend after strong results from two industry heavyweights, Oracle and Research In Motion, and offset the unexpected decline of a closely watched barometer of consumer sentiment.

The Dow Jones gained 13.02 points, or 0.12% to 10,607.85 and the Standard & Poor's 500 took 0.93 point (0.08%) to 1125.59.The Nasdaq Composite, it has advanced 12.36 points (0.54%) to 2315.61.

On the whole week, the Dow rose 1.39%, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 1.45% from 3.26%.

The S & P 500 index briefly passed earlier in the meeting an important technical resistance around 1,130 points, surpassing the highest of the session in June and August, but was unable to stay beyond this threshold was monitored, said which then promoted profit-taking.

"This is the top of its range.This is a good time to take profits and I think that is what we have witnessed in trade on Friday, "said Nick Kalivas, an analyst at MF Global.

The approach of the Federal Reserve meeting, which will make its decision on Tuesday, and the expectation of new earnings reports led some investors to sit on the sidelines, "he added.

ORACLE BONDI, CATERPILLAR RAISES THE STRONGEST DOW

Another explanation for the shortness of the end of the session: according to preliminary results of the survey Reuters-University of Michigan, U.S. consumer sentiment fell in September to its lowest level since August 2009, partly due to the rise to concerns about employment and consumer finance.

This disappointment has however been offset, as illustrated by the outperformance of the Nasdaq, the good news came from the giant software company Oracle and Research In Motion, the developer of the BlackBerry.

The two groups have in fact presented Thursday quarterly earnings above expectations along with an optimistic outlook.

Oracle jumped 8.28% and RIM showed an increase in closing 0.32% up after gaining nearly 5% in session.

Also in the tech sector, Texas Instruments has risen 3% after the announcement of an increase in the amounts allocated to buy back shares and an increase of 8% of its interim dividend.

Caterpillar gained 1.63%, the highest increase in the Dow, after announcing a 37% growth in worldwide sales of its independent dealers over the period from June to August, including through the continued recovery in the activity in North America.

Closing this Friday marked the quarterly expiration of futures and options on stocks and indexes, a combination known as the "four witches" who generally favors volumes and volatility. But the impact was less sensitive this time.

Trade volumes were relatively low, with about 8.3 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, American Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, 9.65 billion against an average day last year.


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Wall Street ended virtually unchanged, the Dow Jones gained 0.2%

Thursday Sep 16, 2010

U.S. stocks ended little changed Thursday amid economic news is mixed.

The Dow Jones Industrial 30 closed up 0.21% or 22.10 points to 10,594.83 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 largest, sold 0.04% or 0.41 point to 1124.66 points. The Nasdaq Composite took 0.08% or 1.93 point to 2203.25 points.

(These data are likely to vary even slightly).


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Athens is on track but risks remain, says IMF

Wednesday Sep 15, 2010

Greece is well placed to achieve its goals of deficit reduction this year but still needs to improve tax collection and expenditure control to sustainably consolidate the public finances, said Tuesday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .

"The ambitious program of fiscal consolidation remains on track, but pressure areas are evident", says international agency in a report released one day after the release of a second tranche of aid from the IMF and the European Union .

The Greek central government will probably spend four billion euros less compared to what was expected this year, which should offset the lower than expected tax revenue and the expenditure overruns in hospitals and municipalities, provides the IMF.

"The staff (IMF) agreed with the authorities that it is possible and that additional fiscal measures are not necessary at this stage," reads the report.

The aid plan of 110 billion euros from the EU and the IMF has been granted in consideration of a drastic austerity plan aimed at reducing the budget deficit to 8.1% of GDP in 2010 against 13.6% a year ago.

The austerity measures – taxes were increased even as average wages and retired members of the public were reduced – have a negative impact on cash flow into the coffers of the state and on economic activity, which dips a bit more of Greece in recession. Forecasters expect a decrease of 4% of GDP this year.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, acknowledged Sunday that the revenue of the state were below targets, but he reiterated that the government was on track to achieve its targets for deficit reduction.


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Brussels doubles its 2010 growth forecasts in the EU

Monday Sep 13, 2010

The forecast for 2010 economic growth in the eurozone and the EU have been almost doubled on Monday by the European Commission, which warns that the recovery remains fragile.

The Community Executive now expects an increase in activity of 1.7% in the euro area and 1.8% in all twenty-seven, respectively, against 0.9 and 1% forecast in May, an expansion powered by Germany and Poland and marked by a rebalancing of growth towards domestic demand.

These interim estimates, covering only the figures for growth and inflation in seven countries representing about 80% of GDP in the EU, also show a moderate price increase this year, expected at 1.4% in the euro area and 1.8% in the EU.

"The European economy is clearly on the road to recovery, more sharply than expected in the spring, and recovery of domestic demand bodes well for the labor market," he said in a statement to the Commissioner Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn.

"Uncertainties remain, however, and safeguarding financial stability and continued fiscal consolidation remain key priorities," he warned.

The Commission now expects annual growth of 3.4% in Germany (against 1.2% forecast in May) and 1.6% in France (1.3% in May), the two largest economies in the euro area.

Spain, who was recovering from recession in the second quarter, is expected back on it in negative territory in the third quarter with a contraction of 0.1% over this period and an expected decline in activity of 0.3% in , 2010.

Outside the euro area, Poland is expected to post strong rebound, estimated at 3.4% over the year (2.7% estimated in May).

In the second half alone, growth of GDP in the EU is expected to decline in favor of a marked slowdown in the global economy and the continuing withdrawal of budget support measures for recovery.

Brussels considers however that the hypothesis of a "double dip" of the global economy "seems unlikely" and that the economic sentiment indicators and the dissemination of the recovery in all sectors and demand components are factors encouraging for the coming months.

In general, the Commission says, "in a context of great uncertainty, with risks to growth prospects of the EU in 2010 are relatively balanced.

Among the negative factors include the advanced external demand weakening, new tensions on financial markets and the significant efforts of fiscal consolidation.


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