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The stock market rally seen since early October, which is largely based on the feeling that Europe has finally committed to the implementation of sustainable solutions to the debt crisis, seems to be over in fear that the ads promised by early November are not up to expectations.

The German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who warned Monday that the European Summit of October 23 would not produce a definitive solution to the debt crisis in the eurozone, has dampened the enthusiasm in the marketplace.

Around 16:30, the CAC 40 and Eurostoxx 50, which is still evolving in the green in the morning after a G20 finance considered rather promising Saturday, both lost about 1.6% as a result of these statements.

Noting that the increase of over 12% in 10 days is largely based on hopes and was made in limited volumes, leaving the door open to great disappointment when announcements, investors do not exclude relapse of the markets in the coming weeks.

"The meeting of G20 finance ministers this weekend confirmed the hopes of the market for the rapid implementation of a plan to end the crisis", says Franklin Pichard, director of Barclays Bourse France.

"Politicians have no room for error in communication.The slightest disappointment lead to a violent reaction to the decline in equity markets. "

Buyers expect the ads to be made after the G20 summit on 3 and 4 November in Cannes: strengthening the capacity of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), bank recapitalization European responses to the financial situation worse than expected from Greece and reform of European governance.

"Although we have a constructive long-term vision of the evolution of sovereign risk in the euro zone, the political difficulties to be expected before reaching a final solution we ensure that the road is bumpy markets," said BNP, however, Paribas Investment Partners.

The management group, which benefited from the rebound to move to underweight on equities, does not "further price drops, as we had this summer seem possible."

ING Investment Management also remains on the defensive, a position with "underweight" on the stock markets in Europe, as well as financial and cyclical stocks.

His actions strategist Patrick Moonen is especially before the uncertainties not only about the size of the bank recapitalization program, but also on the quarterly results, which could also disappointed with the economic slowdown and exchange rate volatility.

"The month of October started a rally based on hopes (…) and positions, but few facts," he said.

Strategists market rate of Societe Generale also believe that "the latest developments are a supporting factor for the risk appetite, although the markets think differently this time."

CONSOLIDATION AT THE OPTION OF ADVERTISING

Investors are more reserved vis-à-vis the commitment shown by Saturday the finance ministers of the G20 to support and rebalance the global economy – with a fiscal consolidation in advanced countries and support for domestic consumption in emerging markets.

"If these promises are interesting, they are very similar to previous ones.There are many positive intentions but little detail on implementation, with the exception of Europeans advancing at a rapid pace, "said François Duhen, strategist at CM-CIC Securities.

From the graphical point of view, analysts estimate that the CAC 40 should stumble on key areas of resistance around 3280-3300 points, then from 3450 to 3500 points, and the Eurostoxx 50 on the area of ​​2450-2460 points.

"The movements (up to last week) could be extended a little longer, but we expect corrections, or at least consolidation in the coming days," said Valerie Gastaldy, Analyst Day By Day.

Alexandre Le Drogoff, Aurel BGC, agrees that current levels of the market should be the starting point for a correction, to a resistance threshold of 3.060 points for the CAC 40 and 2230 points for the Eurostoxx 50 … unless it announces a new downtrend.

"I see the French market up against the 3280-3300 and consolidate the liking of ads before leaving, especially since we do not see a buying spree at the moment. It's going a little too fast. This is probably not sustainable, "said Frederic Rozier, manager at Meeschaert Private.

However, despite the dismantling forced Dexia, some speakers stressed that the "worst is over", confident in the ability of policies to avoid a systemic crisis as in 2008, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

The Franco-Belgian bank Dexia will not split, it will retain the same ownership structure and does not leave the job of local government financing, said its director general in the Belgian financial daily L'Echo.

According to Le Figaro in its Saturday edition, the Deposit, the Postal Bank and Dexia negotiate the creation of a new public to fund local governments, which would allow Dexia to reduce its balance sheet.

"There is no plan on the table to split Dexia. I remind you also that the ownership structure is the Franco-Belgian.No modification of this is planned, "said Pierre Mariani in The Echo.

"Finally, I wish to emphasize that we have no intention of leaving the job of local government funding," he said.

He confirmed that the Board would take place Tuesday but warned that no announcement was expected the outcome.

The French daily Les Echos wrote Monday that Dexia would be willing to sell 20 billion euros of assets to restore its finances.

Like the rest of the banking sector, Dexia shares rose sharply Monday at noon.At 13:20, she progressed from 7% to 1.40 euros while the European sector index. SX7P> took 4.8%.

Bank stocks have statements by monetary authorities and governments that have reported this weekend that they were ready to support them if necessary.

The lack of unity of Europeans at the top in Poland worried the markets. The IMF refers to the default of Athens.

Divisions within the euro area and the lack of concrete progress on the issue have plunged Greece into turmoil Monday and world stock markets, maddened by the scenario of a default of Athens. A "delay" of continuing the privatization program in Greece can lead the country to "default" on its debt, warned Monday the Permanent Representative International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Greece, Bob Traa. And the meeting of European finance ministers on Friday and Saturday in Poland ended in failure.Divided, they postponed any decision on October the payment of a further tranche of 8 billion euros to Greece, which desperately needs the money to avoid bankruptcy.

"Once again, hopes for new policy initiatives to resolve the debt crisis in the eurozone were violently showered," lamented Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank. Now, "the market is betting on a 98% default of Greece," said Phil Flynn, of PFG Best Research. The reaction of the stock exchanges Monday was unequivocal. At the close, Paris fell 3.00%, 3.17% of Milan, Frankfurt 2.83%, 2.03% in London.

European indices, once again, been sealed by the banks that would be the first victims of failing Greek. The Deutsche Bank dropped 4.54% and 4.11% Italian Intesa Sanpaolo. In France, Societe Generale won 6.70% and 5.48% of BNP Paribas.In New York, the Dow Jones lost 1.57% to 1600 GMT. The announcement by U.S. President Barack Obama plan to further reduce the deficit of 3.000 billion, financed half by an increase in taxes for the rich, did not produce any relief.

Teleconference postponed

Very worried, the markets awaited the outcome of a conference between the Greek government and the Troika representing the country's creditors, namely the European Commisson, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF. First scheduled for mid-day, the conference was delayed about 16h, after the close of European stock. "The quarterly audit of the troika is decisive. If the IMF decides to exit the process, the risk of default of the country will be very large," said Cyril Regnat, an analyst at Natixis.

A default of Greece "is not a working hypothesis" in the euro area, however, assured the French minister of Finance Baroin. Greece must at all costs to demonstrate that it meets its budget commitments, the only way to obtain payment of the next round of international loans. "This is not a working hypothesis, it is not our strategy," he said on the sidelines of a meeting with his counterparts from the African franc zone in Paris. "Our strategy (…) is to operationalize the agreement of July 21" adopted by the euro area to come again in aid to Greece and strengthen the European bailout fund, he added. The Permanent Representative of IMF in Athens, Mr. Traa said Monday morning that additional budgetary savings will be "necessary".

"Privatization has been delayed from the program because politicians can not agree on how to proceed," he said in reference to the privatization program of 50 billion euros by 2015 that Greece is committed. "If you wait (…) the country will go to default," he warned.

"Conditions uncontrollable and painful"

Taking the worst estimates of Athens, he returned the country's return to growth in 2013, anticipating a recession of -5.5% in 2011, and -2.5% in 2012. Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that the week opened "is a very difficult week for the country, for the euro area and for me."Athens announced on Sunday that it would conduct new cost-cutting measures in 2012 to reduce the public sector.

"We must now take historical decisions, otherwise we will have to take soon in uncontrollable and painful conditions," he said, referring to the threat of insolvency of the country. The minister made it a priority "respect for the objective for 2011," involving corrective action of 1.8 billion euros, to enable the country to continue to meet its commitments, including "a primary budget surplus in 2012" . Mr. Venizelos nevertheless felt that Athens should not be used as "scapegoats" facing the "lack of competence in managing the debt crisis" in the eurozone.

As a result of concerns around Greece, the euro Monday accentuated its decline against the dollar: towards 1600 GMT, the euro bought 1.3633 dollars against 1.3797 dollars on Friday night. The price of an ounce of gold fell 3%, investors withdrawing from the yellow metal to cover losses in other markets.

HSBC said Tuesday it had revised down its forecast for global growth for 2011, reducing it from 3.0% to 2.6%, and its estimate for 2012, now at 2.8% against 3.4% previously.

"The message is simple: despite significant support measures, a healthy economic recovery is no longer a distant dream," said Stephen King, chief economist of the bank, said in a statement.

HSBC is the first major bank to be more pessimistic about the global outlook.

She sees the United States to grow by 1.6% in 2011 and 1.7% in 2012 against previous projections of 2.5% and 2.9%.

Growth in the euro area is estimated at 1.6% this year and 0.7% respectively in 2012 against 2.0% and 1.4% previously.

HSBC has confirmed its forecast of a 0.6% contraction of the Japanese economy this year and then a rebound of 2.4% in 2012. According to the bank, China will this year show a gross domestic product (GDP) up 8.9% in 2011 by 8.6% in 2012.

Taking advantage of the announcement of quarterly results of his media empire NewsCorp, Rupert Murdoch yesterday appointed its Chief Operating Officer, Chase Carey, to replace the senior management if necessary.

This dubbing suggests that James Murdoch, son of tycoon 80 years, would now be marginalized within the group, after the scandal of wiretapping occurred in the branch of British newspapers, especially the tabloid News of the World, which since been discontinued.

Speaking at a conference about the results for the fourth quarter of NewsCorp, Rupert Murdoch, however, be assured, as Chase Carey, "confidence" in James.

The turnover of NewsCorp increased 11% to 8.96 billion dollars, supported by advertising revenue and subscriptions to its cable channels.

Net income fell to $ 683 million, or 26 cents a share, against 875 million and 33 cents a year earlier.

Earnings from continuing operations, however, is up to 982 million dollars against 902 million a year ago.

The title NewsCorp closed Wednesday down significantly from 5.77% to 13.71 dollars, underperforming the Nasdaq, which yielded 4.09%.

Rupert Murdoch also said the board wanted the group is left of the CEO, despite questions about its management raised by the scandal in the UK, which led to the resignation of several senior officers and The arrest of former employees.

"The board and I think I keep my current role as president and CEO, but be sure that Chase Carey and I manage the company as a team, and that the improvement of our results demonstrates the strength of this partnership, "said Rupert Murdoch.

"On News of the World, I am personally committed to rectifying the situation," he added, saying also disappointed that NewsCorp had to abandon his bid for the chain BSkyB because of this case.

The title of the U.S. insurer American International Group has hit a low of 17 months Friday, the day before the published results did not satisfy investors.

The group issued a profit for the second quarter, thanks to its stake in the insurer AIA Asia and a tax benefit of $ 570 million, which helped offset a decline in operating income from its core business .

Without these two items, AIG would have reported a net loss.

The title fell by 5.7% to 24.90 dollars to 3:25 p.m. GMT, the lowest since at least March 2010, recording the worst performance of the insurance sector on the S & P.

The stock has lost half its value this year.

Threads to reduce the deficit and raise the debt ceiling are apparently still at an impasse. In fact, Democrats have accepted most of the claims of the Republicans seeking a final concession. Explanations. The Republican chairman of the House, John Boehner

Small eight days between the United States of default and financial armageddon that would follow. Nothing to do: Republicans and Democrats still opposed to the terms of a deficit reduction plan to accompany an agreement on raising the debt ceiling, which in May reached its limit of 14,300 billion.

President Barack Obama expressed confidence Monday that a compromise was still possible to avoid that outcome disaster. Except that compromise, the Democrats have done it since the beginning of the crisis. A few months ago they wanted to simply raise the ceiling.He had not reckoned that they needed the agreement of the Republicans, and that they had much benefit from this situation of dependency to require counterparties budget.

The Democrats, therefore, first proposed to reduce the deficit 2.4 trillion, including $ 400 billion would come from tax increases. Faced with the refusal of the Republicans, they then proposed a plan that would reduce the deficit of 4000 billion, of which one billion would come from tax revenues.The Republicans did not want to hear about tax increases, the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, Harry Reid, came Monday with a plan that gives almost all of the main claims of the Republicans:

First he proposed spending cuts of 2,700 billion over ten years, more than 2,400 billion dollars for raising the debt ceiling needed to operate until 2013.

Then he accepted the creation of a committee charged with developing a bipartisan package of deficit reduction that would be protected against any future amendments or filibuster.

Last but not least, he gave up any new tax measure to achieve its goal of reducing the deficit. Yet Obama had insisted from the beginning the need to raise taxes on the wealthiest households.Monday noon yet, the president said: "we can not only reduce our deficit by cutting spending.

Yet despite all these setbacks, the Republicans continue to reject the proposals Democrats. Critics are rather vague: the president of the House Republican John Boehner, said that the plan is "full of gadgets," he does "no real change in the structure of government expenditure" and not not address the major social programs. He now wants to go further by making voting a constitutional amendment that would impose strict limits on future spending. Exceeded their cause automatic cuts in spending.

In fact, the only real sticking point is purely political: Democrats plan approval of debt enough to hold until 2013, that is to say, which can last until after the presidential election in November 2012.They fear that a similar crisis would set back chances for re-election of Obama. It is precisely for this reason that John Boehner is trying not only to validate an initial recovery. He would escape the non-payment in the short term but would require Obama to revisit a second increase, just to put him in trouble on the campaign trail.

The euro area has returned the ball Sunday night in the camp of Greece by refusing to release the fifth installment of the aid in Athens and validate a second aid plan in the country as the Greek Parliament has not passed a new austerity program.

As the date of the vote has not yet stopped, the finance ministers of the euro area, which met for eight hours in Luxembourg, have given themselves until early July to make a decision on these two issues, otherwise Greece would default on its debt in the coming days.

They have however already clarified how private creditors would be associated with a secondary support.This will be an informal and voluntary participation, corresponding to what Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel in Berlin decided Friday.

"The finance ministers of the euro area have decided to set out by early July the main parameters of a financing strategy for Greece," it said in a statement published on a page at the end of the meeting.

"The finance ministers of the euro area are of the opinion that any additional funding for Greece will be public and private sources (…) A private sector with a second aid package to Greece will be on a voluntarily and informally via a "roll-over" of Greek bonds maturing ", is it still indicated.

This condition is known as the "Vienna Initiative", in which private banks had agreed in 2009 not to withdraw from Central Europe at the height of the crisis.

FIRMING

After the hesitation waltz during the week on whether to release the fifth tranche of EUR 12 billion provided under the plan of 110 billion approved in May 2010, Ministers decided to stand firm.

They again called for national political unity in Greece "given the length, magnitude and nature of required reforms."

Above all, they have "a stark reminder that the Greek government by the end of the month it must ensure that all are satisfied that all commitments made by the Greek authorities are met", in the words of the President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, at the end of the meeting.

"You can not imagine for one second that we are committed to fund without knowing whether the Greek government has assumed the obligations are those of Greece," he further told reporters.

The Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders confirmed that the funds are not released yet, although discussions will engage between the Treasury Department of the key member states and private creditors in Greece.

Finance ministers from the euro zone must in turn meet in Luxembourg on Monday to move forward on other issues that will validate the Heads of State and Government of the Twenty-Seven at a summit on Thursday and Friday.

On the menu: capacity building loan from the European Financial Stability (EFSF) created in May, formalized by a treaty of the European Stability Mechanism (SPM) that may replace it from 2013 and reform of the European Pact for Stability and growth.

Also on Monday, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has to travel to Brussels to meet with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, while the market reaction and that of the street in Athens will be scrutinized carefully.

Finance ministers of the G7 (U.S., Japan, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada) discussed this weekend at the Greek crisis of a conference call, said the Japanese Minister of Finance, Yoshihiko Noda.

Activity remained strong in France and Germany but has stalled in Italy, Spain and Ireland. The logo of the euro to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

Growth slowed in May in the euro zone, according to a final estimate of the PMI purchasing managers, which fell to 55.8 points, its lowest in five months. The PMI index is slightly above a first estimate (55.4). It signals the 22nd consecutive monthly increase in the eurozone, the recovery has slowed in all countries surveyed, says the company Markit said in a statement. This "reinforces the suspicion that the eurozone will not be able to attain GDP growth of 0.8% from one quarter to another, performed in the first quarter," Judge Howard Archer, an analyst at IHS Global Insight.

The slowdown is most pronounced in manufacturing.The makers of the euro area attribute this trend to slow the flow of new orders and supply chain disruptions related to the earthquake in Japan. In services, the slowdown is much more moderate. The final PMI index of services activity in the euro area and reached 56.0 in May, the lowest in four months.

"The data set also showed a growth always two speeds, France and Germany leading the recovery, while Italy, Spain and Ireland are similar to more and more stagnant," says Markit. "Weak growth in these three countries, means lower tax revenues and rising social spending, weaken certainly reduce budget deficits," Judge Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

In France, sales growth remained strong in MayThe composite PMI index, which reflects activity in both industry and services, thus stood at 60.3 points in May against 62.4 points in April, the lowest level in two months. In April, the index was at its highest level in 10 years and a half. "Despite the slight decline in May, the rate of growth in business services is still the second highest since September 2000," said Mark.

According to respondents, the increase in activity results from a new sustained increase in the number of new contracts in May. Employment is now rising for the 13th consecutive month. And according to Markit, the outlook remains favorable to twelve months in May, in the French sector of services. The composite PMI index is compiled from a survey conducted among a representative panel of more than 700 companies operating in France in manufacturing and services sector.

Arab revolutions make the beaches of North Africa and the Nile less tempting for French tourists, who should rush this summer on their shores despite bargain prices practiced in North Africa.

Reservations, yet increasingly delayed in recent years, are rising for several months with an exceptional rate in the beach areas, "says Didier Arino, director of consulting firm Protourisme.

If they are leaving the countryside and mountains, the French rushed to the sea, with a preference for coastal Landes and Basque.

The high quality campsites (+8%) and holiday villages (+5%) have the lion's share but hoteliers, too, rejoice a promising trend.

"There is a slight increase in reservations in July and very good for the month of August but there are still opportunities to find a room," explains Alain Vivien, head of the tourism office of Arcachon (Gironde) .

It is mostly campsites enjoying the popularity of the Aquitaine coast.

"This year has been full to January 15 for mobile homes, two months earlier than last year, and since May 15 it was almost full for other locations," said Chantal Pujade of Camping Ker Helen to Teich (Gironde).

DREAM SHARE

Promotions, ubiquitous on North Africa or Egypt, change nothing: these destinations are very popular in normal times, suffer from their political situation.

Even if, for Didier Arino, the danger of Tunisia, for example, remains to be demonstrated, Djerba, Tunisia landmark tourist resort, is just a stone's throw from Libya.

"It's as if we had removed the people a dream," said Didier Arino, who estimated 1.2 million people have withdrawn from French this summer abroad."People have become cautious, they are reluctant to take action."

Arab crises of course play a role in the withdrawal of France, like the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan, who takes away the attractiveness to Asian destinations, argues the director of Protourisme ..

Added to the problem of purchasing power, compounded by soaring fuel prices, prompting many to play the French proximity card, or even to stop from everything.

Three million French waive additional well this year on vacation.

If 49% of French say they want to save money accommodation, they may have difficulty achieving at least to shorten their stays.

GREEN LIGHTS

Prices around the Arcachon basin are indeed not the same as Hammamet and the rate of tourist accommodation in France rose by 30% on average in five years.

The average budget of a French tourist is estimated at 123 euros per day, or about 1,000 euros per week, while all-inclusive stay in Tunisia for the same duration are offered for less than 600 euros.

One tourist destination in the world since the 1990s, France welcomes 80 million visitors a year.Tourism has reported 49.4 billion euros in 2009, placing it third in terms of revenue behind the United States and Spain.

The lights, despite the crisis, remain green.

If they go less far and less time, the French tend to leave more often and more privileged do not mind spending 20% ​​of runners representing 70% of consumption.

"In the midst of purchasing power, we could see our best hotel season, who knows," said Didier Arino.

Nice lately, the weather makes attractive the French coast, even those of Normandy and Brittany.Foreigners, including Germans, great lovers of beaches from North Africa, could also turn to France.

So while promising a summer 2011 quality, or record. A psychological factor may contribute: the announcement of the fine weather, the French, despite a bleak economic situation, want to have fun.

"It was into the blues at the beginning of the year but now we feel that people loosen up a bit," concludes Didier Arino.