The world stock markets expected an increase by the end of 2010
Posted by admin | Under business success, connection, networks, occupation, plans Thursday Jun 24, 2010The main indices of world stock markets should end the year at a level higher than that which is theirs now, but fears of slowing economic recovery could limit their gains in some developed countries, shows a Reuters poll.
Contrary to the previous Reuters poll predicted, most financial markets should finish the first half down.
According to the median estimates of over 300 policy makers, the second half of the year should be more favorable, while the 12-month forecasts show that places emerging markets are expected to record growing faster than that generated on Scholarships developed countries.
However, investors surveyed expect a slowdown in economic activity in coming months because of the debt crisis of the euro area that has weighed on markets in the second quarter, which remains unresolved, and austerity measures in many countries belonging to the 20 largest economies (G20).
"The risks of a crisis within the euro area remains high," warns Philip Gijsels addition of BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets."The global economy will slow in the second half, the big question is how much."
STRENGTH OF QUARTERLY RESULTS AND RATE DOWN
However, investors believe that most world stock markets should finish the year on strong gains compared to their levels of late last year.
The Dow Jones U.S. Index and S & P 500 are expected to register increases of 11.7% and 12.6% by the end of the year, while that on June 23 they had lost 1.24% and 2 , 07% since the beginning of 2010.
In France, the CAC 40 should finish the year at 4,000 points, 3,939 points against the end of last year and 3642 points at the close Wednesday.
The quarterly results ahead of listed companies in Europe and the U.S. should be the key to recovery of markets in the second half of the year, said the investors interviewed for the survey.
Expectations of continued very low levels of interest rates by major central banks on the international balance of the year accentuate investor optimism about changing exchanges.
In this case, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) should not increase their rates until 2011, while the Federal Reserve said it would maintain its rates at a record low for a prolonged period.
EMERGING MARKETS POSSESSING THE LIGHT
The financial centers of the largest emerging markets like Brazil, China and Russia, have experienced a turbulent start to the year, like the Shanghai Stock Exchange has lost 21.7% of its value since January .
However, strategists expect that the situation improved and anticipate an erase losses earlier this year on the second half of the year.
Investors are even predicting that emerging markets perform better than the developed countries within the first half of 2011.
The benchmark Hang Seng Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, the Russian RTS and the Brazilian Bovespa should also earn more than 20% over the next twelve months, while the BSE Sensex index India could win over 18% the same time.
"The market remains very liquid, and the rates are at historically low," said Francis Kwok Bright Smart Group.
Emerging markets are not expected to be the only ones to show a strong performance by the end of the first half of 2011, as the Australian index flagship A & P / ASX 200 and that of the Milan Stock Exchange should jump 22.8% respectively and 18.1% YoY.
"There is always a cloud associated with sovereign debt problems of Europe, which is still in my view, a significant risk to the future in terms of confidence," warns George Clapham Arnhem Investment Management.
"But in terms of recovery, at present, the market is very, very attractive," he adds.